GARUT -Currently forecasting methods are very familiar in the world of statistics. Forecasting is very important in many fields. Primarily a field whose dynamics is dependent on a function of time. One of them is used in viewing captured fish production. One of the factors that influence the production of captured fish is the intensity of rainfall as an indicator of climate change. High or low intensity of rainfall can affect the salinity of seawater and have an impact on fishing. In addition, capture fish production is also influenced by past fish production.
From my point of view, overfishing in the past could affect current fish production if the rate of catching exceeds the ability of these fish resources to recover. This overfishing occurs when the fishing process does not pay attention to the balance of the marine ecology, causing a large reduction in young fish in the fishing area. High rainfall intensity causes a decrease in catch fish production because of the high levels of water salinity due to freshwater runoff. This has an impact on the distribution of fish in the fishing area so that the catch of fishermen is also reduced. In addition, rainfall causes strong wind movement so that the turbulence of sea water is accelerating and resulting in tidal waves.
Based on article the Marine Capture Fisheries Production and Intensity of Rainfall an Application of Autoregressive Distributted Lag by Fadhillah Fitri, 2017 The effect of rainfall intensity on capture fish production can be investigated using time series regression of the effect of autoregressive distributed lag. Autoregressive Distributted Lag (ARDL) is a time effect regression involving the past value (lag) of the dependent and independent variables. This article predicts the yield of captured fish by taking into account the intensity of rainfall in West Java Province. The data used is in the form of quarters from 2004 to 2014. After statistical tests were carried out, it was found that captured fish production in the 1st and 2nd quarter affected the current capture fish production. Meanwhile, the current rainfall affects capture fish production with the error value of forecast analysis calculated using MAPE, the MAPE result is 16.20673.